From the highest price of about 600,000 yuan/ton, it has fallen to about 100,000 yuan/ton today. As a key raw material for lithium batteries, lithium carbonate has ushered in a new round of low-price cycle due to the change in supply and demand contradictions. On January 11, data from the Power Battery Application Branch showed that the price of lithium carbonate was 96,000 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 80% from the historical high of about 600,000 yuan/ton.
Following this, the price of lithium batteries has dropped sharply. It is understood that the current cost price of lithium iron phosphate batteries has dropped to about 0.6 yuan/Wh, and industry-leading companies have been able to achieve 0.4 yuan/Wh. It is well known in the industry that in the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles, which are particularly sensitive to prices, lead-acid batteries have always dominated the field with their low price advantages, and their Wh cost is about 0.4 yuan. In other words, the current cost of lithium batteries is increasingly consistent with that of lead-acid batteries.
When the cost advantage that lead-acid batteries are proud of no longer exists, lithium batteries will form a powerful dimensionality reduction attack on lead-acid batteries. This time, it is an inevitable trend for lithium batteries in two-wheeled electric vehicles to fully replace lead-acid batteries.
The trend of lithium electrification of two-wheeled electric vehicles is irreversible
The market size of two-wheeled electric vehicles is huge. The research institution Market Research Furture mentioned in the “Electric Two-Wheeled Vehicle Market Information Report” that by 2030, the global two-wheeled electric vehicle market size will exceed US$100 billion (about RMB 700 billion), and the annual compound growth rate from 2022 to 2030 will reach 34.57%.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of two-wheeled electric vehicles. According to data from the China Bicycle Association, the number of two-wheeled electric vehicles in my country has reached about 350 million, that is, one in every four people owns a two-wheeled electric vehicle, and the scale has surpassed that of automobiles. Industry data shows that China’s two-wheeled electric vehicle sales in 2022 and 2023 exceeded 50 million, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2024.
In terms of price, most of the current two-wheeled electric vehicle brands with the highest sales volume are priced in the “civilian” range of 1,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan. As consumers are very sensitive to prices, traditional electric vehicle brands are still dominated by cheap lead-acid batteries.
With the drop in lithium carbonate prices and the continuous decline in the cost of lithium batteries, the market penetration rate of lithium batteries will rise rapidly in the future, and the price of two-wheeled lithium-ion vehicles will also tend to be popular. Battery China noticed that the Ou Bo II launched by Yadea is equipped with a 48V24AH lithium battery, with a range of 60-70 kilometers and a price of only 2,649 yuan. Second-tier brands are also making efforts to develop lithium-ion vehicles, such as Wuxing Zuanbao, which directly reduced the price of 48V24AH lithium-ion battery electric vehicles to 2,199 yuan. The lithium electrification of two-wheeled electric vehicles is an inevitable trend.
In fact, the horn of lithium batteries attacking lead-acid batteries has long been sounded. In May 2018, the mandatory national standard “Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles” (referred to as the “New National Standard”) was issued, and it was enforced in April 2019, and a 55kg vehicle weight limit requirement was proposed. “Under the same charge, the weight of a lithium battery is only 1/3 of that of a lead-acid battery.” Industry insiders pointed out that the vast majority of electric bicycles in China’s current market are “over-standard electric vehicles”, and the introduction of the new national standard is accelerating the process of lithium batteries replacing lead-acid batteries.
From the feedback at the market level, the terminal is indeed very interested in lightweight lithium-ion vehicles. According to feedback from market visits, many electric vehicle store dealers admitted that “in the past, many consumers chose lead-acid vehicles because of their low prices, but recently the price of lithium-ion vehicles has also come down, and the advantages of lead-acid vehicles have disappeared.”
Compared with lead-acid vehicles, lithium-ion vehicles have many performance advantages. In terms of cycle life, the cycle life of lithium batteries is 1200-2000 times, while the cycle life of lead-acid batteries is only 500-900 times. Under the same conditions of use, the life of lithium batteries is more than 2-3 times that of lead-acid batteries. The energy density of lithium batteries is much higher than that of lead-acid batteries, and their low-temperature performance is better. For example, a two-wheeled electric vehicle with a range of 50 kilometers at normal temperature will have a range of only 25 kilometers for a lead-acid vehicle at 0°C, while a lithium-ion vehicle can maintain a range of 40 kilometers.